Here are two prominent FBI profiles of the Scarborough Rapist, a.k.a. Paul Bernardo. The second profile was actually used as circumstantial evidence to secure a murder search warrant for 57 Bayview Dr. after Bernardo was arrested for the Scarborough rapes and murders of Leslie Mahaffy and Kristen French on February 17, 1993.

 

DATE 17/11/1988

 

DESCRIPTION INVESTIGATIVE ANALYSIS F.B.I. VIRGINIA

 

VICTIMS:
Chelsea Hagen
Laurel Aister
Erin Calister
Shari Sykes
Erika Paxton
Crystal Bradley
Danielle Collins

 

Metropolitan Toronto Police, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, May 4, 1987, May 14, 1987, July 27, 1987, December 16, 1987, December 23,1987, April 18, 1988, May 30, 1988. NCAVC -Serial Sexual Assaults (Criminal Investigative Analysis) Foreign Police Co-operation(F.P.C.)

 

The following criminal investigative analysis was prepared by Special Agent Gregg O. McCrary, in consultation with Supervisory Special Agent James A. Wright and other members of the National Center for the Analysis of Violent Crimes (NCAVC). The analysis is based upon a review of the materials submitted by our agency, and the conclusions are the result of knowledge drawn from the personal investigative experience, educational background and research conducted by these crime analysts as by other NCAVC members. It is not a substitute for a thorough well planned investigation and should not be considered all inclusive. This analysis is based upon probabilities noting however, that no two criminal acts or criminal personalities are exactly alike and, therefore, the offender at times may not fit the analysis in every category.

 

VICTIMOLOGY:

 

Analysis of the victims in an effort to determine their risk factor is of significance. The susceptibility of these women becoming victims of asexual assault was examined in conjunction with their individual lifestyles, background, and overall social and physical environments. We found nothing in any of these women's backgrounds or lifestyles that would elevate their risk of becoming victims of a violent crime and/or sexual assault. We consider all of these victims to be low-risk victims.

 

There are observable similarities in that the victims are white females 15-21 years of age, with six out of seven living in the Scarborough area and three of those living in extremely close proximity to one another. The significance of this will be discussed in greater detail in the crime analysis section of this report.

 

The fact that four of the victims either traveled from or through the downtown area immediately prior to the attack is noted, but is not felt to be of significance in this analysis. If the offender was selecting his victims from a downtown location and surveilling them to their residential area for the attack, we would expect to see a far more random geographical pattern to the attacks than there is. With the exception of the Clarkson attack, all are clustered in the Scarborough area.

 

Another notable similarity among the victims is their small physical stature, ranging from 5'1" and 95 pounds to 5'3" and 135pounds. This will be discussed in more detail in the crime analysis section also.

 

HOSPITAL AND LABORATORY EXAMINATIONS:

 

The result of the medical and laboratory examinations of each of the victims is complete and specific details are readily retrievable from those reports, therefore, no attempt will be made to summarize the findings.

 

All reports are consistent with and tend to corroborate the individual victim's specific allegation regarding each attack.

 

CRIME ANALYSIS:

 

A meaningful behavioural analysis of a series of sexually motivated attacks is best accomplished by examining the assailants verbal, sexual, and physical behaviour during the commission of the attacks. In conjunction with these considerations, the following aspects are being set forth as significant.

 

The process by which an offender targets and/or selects his victims is of obvious importance.

 

We feel your offender uses bus stops for staking out points. He surveils streets rather than homes and does so at night. Some victims were victims of opportunity while others appear to have been previously targeted to a degree. We believe the offender has seen victims or potential victims in passing, but had no urge to attack and at other times has seen victims, had the urge to attack, but the moment was inopportune.

 

The successful attacks occurred when the urge, opportunity and victims coincided. The victims are being targeted by the offender in the areas in which the attacks are occurring. He is following them short distances before attacking them.

 

The six victims in Scarborough were all approached from behind, while the victim in Clarkson was approached from the front. He gained control over all the victims by the immediate application of injurious physical force. He maintained control of the victims through the use of physical force and verbal threats of bodily harm and/or death, all of which were often accomplished while brandishing a knife in a threatening and intimidating manner.

 

All victims were attacked outdoors, while walking alone, near their residence during the hours of darkness.

 

Typically, this type of offender starts his attacks in an area with which he is familiar. This familiarity is usually the result of the offender living or working in that area and gives him a sense of security and comfort as he knows the neighbourhood well, can plan escape routes etc. The behaviour exhibited by your offender is consistent with this premise.

 

We believe your offender resides in the Scarborough area, specifically within walking distance of the first, second and fifth attacks. Because he lives in his attack area it is of utmost importance to him that the victims not see him. This is one of the reasons he prefers to approach the victims from the rear. Upon contact he forces them face down into the ground and/or demands that they keep their eyes closed to ensure they do not see him.

 

The victim in Clarkson was approached in a slightly different manner. After following her for a distance on foot, he approached her under the guise of asking directions. This approach allowed the victim to see his face, but was short in duration as the victim did not finish her first sentence before being physically assaulted and forced face down to the ground. It is our opinion that the offender was less concerned about being seen by this victim as he does not spend a great deal of time in the Clarkson area and believes that it is unlikely he would be recognized or seen there again.

 

Another reason your offender approaches his victims from behind is that he harbours some inadequacies. These inadequacies are further evident in his verbal behaviour as he scripts many of his victims to say, "Tell me you hate your boyfriend and you love me." "Tell me you love me, tell me it feels good" and other ego-gratifying statements.

 

Another indication of his inadequacies is evident in his victim selection. He selected victims that appeared non-threatening to him .As noted in the victimology section, the victims are physically small and could offer no real resistance to the attack. Each victim was walking alone at the time of the attack and was virtually defenceless.

 

Anger, however, is the primary behaviour exhibited by your offender. His intent is to punish and degrade the victims as he is angry at all women. This is evident in the blitz style approach and the majority of his verbal behaviour as well as the type and sequence of sexual acts forced upon the victims in conjunction with the punishing physical force used against them.

 

The typically profane verbal behaviour combined with scripting the victims to describe themselves as a bitch, a cunt, a slut etc., evidences his anger and his need to punish and degrade his victims.

 

This anger is also apparent in your offender's sexual behaviour. By forcing the victims to perform oral sex on him after he has repeatedly vaginally and anally assaulted them, he is punishing, degrading and humiliating them. The type and sequence of sexual assault is consistently observable in the series of attacks.

 

His anger is unmistakable when observing the excessive physical force he uses against the victims. What is of concern is the escalation in violence observable in this series of attacks. He is using far more physical force against the victims than is necessary to control them. In addition to this, the offender has stuffed articles of clothing into the mouths of victims and in the case of the sixth victim, not only broke her collar bone, but poured dirt on her and rubbed it into her hair and onto her body. This is a symbolic gesture which expresses the assailants opinion of women.

 

We do not believe the offender would attack a victim with a premeditated idea of murdering her. However, we would opine, based upon our research and experience, that if confronted by a victim who vigorously resists his attack, your offender is the type who would likely become so enraged he could lose control and thereby become capable of unintentionally murdering the victim.

 

This type of behaviour is observable in your offender to a lesser degree in these attacks. In analysing the interaction between the individual victims and the offender it can be seen that the victims feel overpowered by him and are generally compliant and submissive. Still, when the victims either misunderstand a command or delay, even momentarily responding to a demand, the offender immediately becomes enraged and escalates the amount of violence directed at the victim.

 

The offenders escalation in violence is observable also as the first three attacks could been seen as attempted rapes where no penile penetration occurred , while the rest of the attacks were successful rapes from the offenders view point as he achieved penile penetration. This expansion of the sexual nature of the assaults was accompanied by an escalation in the verbal and physical violence directed at the victims.

 

Also observable in the offender is the development of sadistic tendencies. He asked the seventh victim, should I kill you, thereby making her beg for her life. The sadist achieves gratification by the victims response to his attempts to dominate and control her, either physically or psychologically, by posing a question that made the victim beg for her life he is deriving pleasure.

 

He has shown adaptive behaviour, indicating he is becoming comfortable in committing the assaults and feels unthreatened and in control. This is exemplified in the sixth attack. While he was accosting the victim and attempting to gain control over her, a car pulls out of a driveway a few inches away and drives by them. He does not panic, but forces the victim into some bushes near a house and continues to assault her.

 

OFFENDER CHARACTERISTICS AND TRAITS:

 

Your offender is a white male, 18 to 25 years of age. It should be cautioned that age is a difficult category to profile since an individual's behaviour is influenced by emotional and mental maturity, and not chronological age. No suspect should be eliminated based on age alone. The behaviour exhibited throughout these assaults suggests a youthful offender rather than an older more mature one.

 

As noted above, we believe your offender lives in the Scarborough area. He is familiar with Scarborough, especially the initial assault sites, and, therefore, in all probability lives in the immediate vicinity of those first assaults.

 

The offender's anger towards women will be known by those individuals who are close to him. He will speak disparagingly of women in general conversation with associates.

 

He had a major problem with women immediately before the onset of these attacks. His anger would have been apparent not only for the particular woman involved but those close to him.

 

He is sexually experienced but his past relationships with women have been stormy and have ended badly. In all probability he has battered women he has been involved with in the past. He places the blame for all his failures on women.

 

If he has a criminal record, it will be one of assaultive behaviour. The arrests will likely be for assault, disturbing the peace, resisting arrest, domestic disturbance, etc.

 

His aggressive behaviour would have surfaced during adolescence. His education background will be at the high school level with a record of discipline problems. He may have received counselling for his inability to get along with others, his aggressiveness, and/or substance abuse.

 

He is bright, but an underachiever in a formal academic setting. He is nocturnal and spends a good deal of time on foot in the target assault area.

 

We believe your offender is single.

 

The offender has an explosive temper and can easily become enraged. This rage transfers over into the rest of his life.

 

He blames everyone else for his problems.

 

His work record will be sporadic and spotty as he cannot hold a job due to his inability to handle authority.

 

He is financially supported by his Mother or other dominant female in his life.

 

He is a lone wolf type of person. He can deal with people on a superficial level but prefers to be alone.

 

The personal property of the victims which your offender took from the assault scenes is being kept by him. These effects are viewed as trophies by the offender and allow him to relive the assaults. He will keep these items in an area which is under his personal control and in which he feels is secure, but yet allows him ready access to them.

 

The nature of these attacks will continue to be episodic and sporadic. In all probability, they will continue to occur outdoors as he is familiar with the area and this familiarity gives him a sense of freedom and mobility which would be denied if he were to attack indoors. Each attack is precipitated by a stressor in the offenders life. This stressor could be either one in fact or in his mind.

 

The offender recognizes his inadequacies and attempts to mask them, but very often overcompensates. These inadequacies are not known by casual acquaintances, but are well known by those closest to him.

 

POST OFFENSE BEHAVIOUR:

 

Your offender harbours no guilt or remorse for these crimes. He believes his anger is justified and, therefore, so are the resultant attacks. His only concern is being identified and apprehended.
 

SUPERVISORY SPECIAL AGENT GREG MCCRARY FBI PROFILE

MAY 1992

Note: the profile is not given verbatim, but is shown how Bernardo relates to the profile in a police report. All the parts in italics are taken directly from the McCrary profile.

 

Supervisory Special Agent Gregg O. McCrary has twenty-three years experience with the FBI and is a Criminal Investigative Analyst with the NCAVC at the FBI Academy in Quantico, Virginia. NCAVC is a law enforcement oriented behavioural science and computerized resource center which consolidates research, training and investigative support functions to assist law enforcement agencies with violent crimes which are particularly complex or bizarre. Since 1981, NCAVC has focused its research capabilities upon serial killers and severe sexual offenders utilizing behavioural science methodology to develop a reliable data base and analytical framework for use in law enforcement. The unit reviews and studies information contained in hundreds of cases which are submitted each year for consultation purposes. The foundation of its data base is empirical research into the case histories of some thirty-six serial killers, forty-one rapists, fifty arsonists, seventeen child abductors/molesters and thirty sexual sadists.

 

Agent McCrary serves both as a consultant to law enforcement agencies and a research project coordinator. He entered on duty as a Special Agent with the Federal Bureau of Investigation in 1969 and served in various investigative capacities throughout the United States. He has been associated with the National Center for the Analysis of Violent Crime since 1985.

 

He consults in the investigation and prosecution of such crimes as serial murder, serial rape, sexual homicides, kidnappings, and child abductions/molestations.

 

He has provided expert witness testimony before Select Senate Committees on Sexual Violence as well as in homicide trials in the United States. He has consulted on thousands of cases throughout the United States, Canada, Central America, Australia, England, Austria, Italy and China. Agent McCrary has provided consultation or instruction to the Central Intelligence Agency, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Drug Enforcement Administration, Royal Canadian Mounted Police, National College of District Attorneys, National Criminal Intelligence Service of the Netherlands and numerous other local, state, federal and international agencies.

 

Agent McCrary's formal education includes a Master's degree in psychology from Marymount University. He is a featured speaker to legal, medical, law enforcement and private sector audiences throughout the world.

 

Special Agent McCrary and his colleagues at NCAVC studied the available information (most of which is provided herein) about the first eight offences of a then unknown offender called the Scarborough Rapist. During those offenses the rapist displayed several sexually sadistic characteristics and was becoming more and more violent a s demonstrated by his punishing and beating of the victims. As a result of the behaviour of this offender, Mr. McCrary was able to predict that the danger posed by this person would escalate. The use of force beyond that necessary to subdue the victims, together with the psychological abuse, assisted in identifying this offender as a sexual sadist.

 

Special Agent McCrary is of the opinion that as time passed the sadistic component of this offender's actions would continue to grow. Research has demonstrated that such an offender will not stop of his own volition. He only stops with the exertion of external forces, that is he either dies or is in custody. The offenses may stop in a given area because this type of offender moves, but Mr. McCrary would expect to see the offender act out in the area to which he has relocated. In the case of Paul Bernardo, he moved from the Scarborough area and the offenses attributable to the Scarborough Rapist stopped. Within nine weeks of Bernardo's arrival in St. Catharines, a rape occurred in close proximity to his new home. This rape clearly demonstrated the same modus operandi used by the Scarborough Rapist as described elsewhere in this document. This pattern is predictable in the case of the sexual sadist. Mr. McCrary would expect to see another offence in close proximity to the offender's new home and the cycle would start all over again.

 

Mr. McCrary predicted an escalation in the nature of offenses based upon a lifestyle change. In the case of Paul Bernardo, while living in Scarborough, he was in a home which was controlled by his parents. Once he moved to St. Catharines, he had a home of his own over which he was able to exert complete control. This change in his circumstances, aids him in the escalation of his offenses to the point where he can now bring his victims home.

 

Abduction is a predictable progression for the sexual sadist. However, abduction of a victim virtually guarantees that murder will result. If the sexual sadist has held a victim he feels in his own mind that he can't possibly let them go. As his fantasy escalates he needs more control and gains that control through abduction and forcible confinement of his victims. The ultimate fantasy of a sexual sadist is to totally possess his victims, both physically and psychologically. He seeks to achieve control over their life and ultimately over their death as well.

 

In the expert opinion of Mr. McCrary it is predictable that some of the Scarborough Rapist's victims would be killed by this point in time.

 

Rapists identified as sexual sadists are statistically less than 2% of all of these types of offenders. Therefore, the probability o f having more than one of these type of offenders in the geographic area and population we are concerned with is statistically very remote. There is a high probability that the Scarborough Rapist and the sexual sadistic murderer of Mahaffy and French is the same offender. Further, sexual sadist tendencies when combined with a very rare phenomenon where hair is collected from victims, as Bernardo did with two women in Scarborough, and as happened with Kristen French, is a strong indicator this is the same offender. The taking of hair satisfies Bernardo's need to punish, degrade and disgrace his victims. It also serves as a trophy.

 

Special Agent McCrary and his colleagues at NCAVC studied the available information on the murders of Leslie Mahaffy and Kristen French and concluded that they are likely victims of a sexual sadist. Paul Bernardo demonstrates almost all of the characteristics which are typically found in the sexually sadistic serial killer. The following characteristics, from the police investigation apply to Paul Bernardo:

 

White male: Same. Above average intelligence: Investigators have established that Bernardo completed a four year University Degree in three years. Neat and well groomed: Surveillance has established that Bernardo presents himself very well in a social setting, especially during daytime. However, during the hours of darkness while stalking potential victims, his appearance changes. Parental conflict: Family members report that Bernardo expresses hatred for his Mother and thinks she is crazy. At age 14 years Bernardo learned that who he had thought of as his Father was actually his step-father since he was a product of his mother's affair with another man. Will select an occupation which makes him an authority figure: When asked about employment, Bernardo told his wife's parents, who have been interviewed, that he was involved in a secret ‘project’. He currently claims to be involved in writing ‘rap’ music and has told his sister-in-law that he will be the white ‘M.C. Hammer’ a popular black rap musician. Fascination with weapons: Several people have reported that Bernardo has a ‘special’ knife that he usually keeps in his car under a seat. A prior girlfriend, who also became a victim, describes this knife as having a personal inscription on the blade. A knife has been used in numerous offenses. Family members have disclosed that Bernardo has purchased a ‘Stun gun’ and normally keeps it under his bed. Compulsive driving: Surveillance has established that Bernardo, for several days in a row, drove an average of 650 kilometres . Initially presents the image of a sincere, caring, loving and attentive individual: Past girlfriends and his wife's family all report that Bernardo, during the early stages of his relationships, showered the women with gifts and attention. He maintained an outward appearance of being loving and attentive. Dominating personality: Family members report that Bernardo told his wife how to wear her hair and chose her clothing. Over the course of time he isolated her from her former friends. A close friend of Bernardo, Van Smirnis, disclosed that he observed many occasions when Bernardo treated his wife with a total lack of respect. In January 1993, after charges were laid against Bernardo for beating his wife, she disclosed a long history of physical abuse. Obsession with sexual sadism; suffers from an overpowering compulsion to inflict pain upon and totally dominate any sexual companion: A former girlfriend has disclosed that Bernardo was unable to achieve an erection unless he frightened or inflicted pain on her. With that woman, Bernardo used ligatures around her neck while engaging in anal intercourse. He also used foreign objects including bottles and sticks by inserting them into both vaginal and anal cavities of his victims. Further, any non-compliance on the part of his victims or willing sexual partners resulted in violence. Compulsively collects and uses pornography: A friend, Van Smirnis, has reported that Bernardo made a videotape of himself having sex with an unknown woman. He then showed the video to his wife. Smirnis also reports that Bernardo disclosed that his wife had been searching their home for a video tape that recorded her having sex with another woman. Further, Bernardo is known to own a video camera and playback equipment. He, as a matter of habit, videotapes people and events and collects these. Collects and keeps as trophies and mementos personal items belonging to past victims (e.g., undergarments, shoes, jewellery, wallets or identification); such trophies then serve as a source of perverse gratification and enrich the offender's sexual fantasies: Investigation has revealed that each victim has lost an item during the attack which could be characterized as a ‘trophy’. Trophies include photo identification, articles of clothing, jewelry, head and pubic hairs. Selects victims who are particularly vulnerable - favours the young: Most victims are young women found alone at the time of the attack. Victims all have the appearance of being between 14 and 18 years of age. Married at time of offense: Paul and Karla Bernardo lived together from February 1991 at 57 Bayview Drive. They were married June 29, 1991 . Therefore they were in at least a common-law relationship at the time of Mahaffy and French. Known history of Peeping or Obscene telephone calls: In at least one of the Scarborough Rapist offenses Bernardo told the victim he had watched her inside her home. One other victim reported receiving telephone calls after her attack. In addition, the victim in the Henley Island attack also reported phone calls. 93% of sexually sadistic serial killers plan their crimes carefully: Surveillance has established evidence of stalking victims during both the daytime and night-time. The method of disposal of the body in the Mahaffy case is indicative of planning. The condition of the body in the French case also indicates planning since the body was cleaned to remove trace evidence. All rape attacks occurred in dark areas where there was some sort of cover. Also, during the rapes he forced victims to swallow semen in order to destroy biological samples.

 

According to Special Agent McCrary, the NCAVC research found that the sexually sadistic serial killer exhibits a high degree of predictability in his criminal behaviour. Accordingly, Special Agent McCrary believes that it is not a question of whether, but when, Paul Bernardo will offend again. Since there is no limit upon his appetite for sadistic gratification, it is only a question of time until his next victim does or refuses to do something which he perceives as a threat to his control over her. When that happens, he will react as he has always reacted. The documented case histories demonstrate conclusively that offenders like Paul Bernardo cannot stop raping and killing of their own volition. They stop only when they are stopped by external forces.

 

Offender activity may be suppressed for a time. Close brushes with law enforcement would lead to a period of inactivity. In Bernardo's case, he was interviewed as a suspect in the Scarborough Rapist case in November 1990. No offence was committed in that area after that time. This behaviour is consistent and predictable. However, this quiet period will consistently be followed by renewed activity by the offender. Hence the offence in St. Catharines in April 1991.

 

Special Agent McCrary agrees with those who attended the case review conference that Paul Bernardo will react as predicted. Finally, with respect to the likelihood that tangible evidence will be recovered through additional searches, Special Agent McCrary indicated to the Task Force in the month of May, 1992, that he believed that such evidence does exist and can be recovered for the following reasons.

 

Supervisory Special Agent McCrary relates that a prime characteristic of the sadistic offender is to keep and conceal journals, graphic materials and particularly audio and video tape s which will feed his fantasies and enable him to relive the exhilarating moments of his past offenses for continual gratification. Indeed, 53% of the sexually sadistic offenders studied by NCAVC actually memorialized their offenses in some tangible form. Depending upon the particular offender's living arrangements and how secure he feels in any particular location, this collection of memorabilia may be hidden but will be somewhere within reasonably easy access. Paul Bernardo should feel relatively safe in his home because although he was a suspect in the Scarborough Rapes and provided biological samples, 27 months have elapsed since he gave those samples and nothing has happened to him. He has no reason to believe that he is currently the target of any police investigation. Hence, he is likely to have his stash of ‘trophies’ and mementos of the kind described above concealed in his home or in a related storage area, the location of which a thorough search of the home should reveal.

 

The high risk nature of the abduction of Kristen French was a predictable action of a sexual sadist such as Paul Bernardo. Since he believes he was not detected when biological samples were collected from him in November 1990, his confidence has grown and he ha s developed a sense of invulnerability. He will begin to think he won't be apprehended and therefore he indulges in more high risk offenses. The opinions and information above described, provided by Special Agent Gregg McCrary, have been reviewed by Peter I. Collins, M.C.A., M.D., F.R.C.P. (C). Doctor Collins concurs with the opinions offered by Mr. McCrary. Rapists who are also sexual sadists are rare. Doctor Collins is the Consultant Psychiatrist, Violent Crime Analysis Section of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police.”